Expected August to be the peak production month for ternary cathode materials [SMM Ternary Cathode Material Market Weekly Review]

This week, ternary cathode material prices ended their two-week upward trend and entered a phase of slight fluctuation, mainly due to the volatility in lithium carbonate market sentiment. Currently, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the future price of lithium carbonate. The cost pressure from nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate continues to rise, and with nickel sulphate expected to be in short supply in September, it is anticipated that precursor prices will have further upside room. In terms of discounts, the settlement discount for ternary cathodes has remained relatively stable, with the increase in upstream sulphate coefficients yet to be passed on to downstream; however, an adjustment in the discount coefficient in September is likely.

On the demand side, domestic ternary markets, driven by peak season stockpiling, have seen generally good order performance across companies, with August production expected to reach its annual peak. Given the significant increase in August's production schedule, a slight pullback is expected in September, with Q4 demand forecasted to continue declining. In overseas markets, there was a surge in US NEV sales ahead of the September 30th subsidy deadline, but the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) has significantly impacted subsequent demand in the US ternary market. There is now considerable uncertainty about future demand in the US, which has also affected the production schedules of some overseas cathode plants.